Monday, December 08, 2008

Crash Course

This is by far the single best (brief) explanation of Peak Oil I have come across yet.

Actually, the whole "Crash Course" is excellent. It takes a while to watch the whole thing, but I think it would work pretty well to cherry-pick the chapters that look interesting to you. You might miss some references, but they should stand alone fairly well. The more of it you watch, the more you'll understand my inner "doomer". This guy is really good at clearly explaining complex ideas, without talking down to anyone.

More to come on other topics, but that's all I have for the moment.

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Thursday, November 29, 2007

Just call me "Scoop"...

Can I be smug for a sec?

I scooped Time Magazine. And National Public Radio. And the Wall Street Journal, too. By a year and a half, no less.

Now, I'm not a reporter. I don't play one on TV. Heck, I don't even write in complete sentences sometimes. I'm just some dude with a computer and some misdirected curiosity.

So how is it that I wrote something here back in May of 2006 that just last week hit the front page of the mighty Wall Street Journal? That NPR spent an hour discussing? That Time Magazine is just now jumping... all... over?

If you don't know about peak oil, you need to find out about it. Like yesterday.

Okay, so in reality, lots of other people knew about this even before I did. Sometimes waaay before.

But if peak oil is coming, or is here now, or already happened, join me (and some others) over here for ideas on what to do about it.

Sigh... I didn't want it to be true. Sometimes I wish I was just a paranoid nutjob.

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PS - We got the carseat problem solved. And we didn't even have to buy a new vehicle. Woohoo!

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Friday, November 02, 2007

'Cause I'm bored

I'm teetering on the edge of pathetic again. I'm a bit of a crap magnet, as Lori put it. I've got a cold. After months of denial, my camera has to go back into the shop again. One of our chickens up and died. Didn't even leave a note or anything. And to top it off, I spent yesterday wearing an eye patch and watching TV (doctor's orders, if you can believe that) because my talented daughter managed to bruise my top eyelid and put a big scratch on the inside of my bottom eyelid. Don't ask me how, because I'm not really sure. Whatever it was, I never saw it coming. But I am sure it hurt like crazy. The eye itself is fine, and actually feels much better today. My wrist is doing pretty well, probably 85-90% usable.

So meanwhile, I'm taking on a couple of new writing projects, which makes no sense. But I'm nonsensical that way. I can only reveal one at this time, because the other one is, well, uncertain. Mysterious, eh?

First, a story...

Last Saturday I attended the Community Solution conference in Yellow Springs, Ohio. Well, mostly. I was only there for one day of the conference, but I got to hang out a bit with fellow Groovy Green contributors Aaron, Matt, Sharon, and Steve. Sharon was one of the featured speakers, and she introduced me to Larry, the somewhat unlikely star of the conference. Actually, just between you and me, Sharon and Larry were the two most interesting speakers there. Of course I didn't stick around for the Big Names, but Sharon and Larry were worth the trip.

Of course I was already feeling guilty on the way over, because burning up gasoline to go listen to people talk about Peak Oil creates a bit of cognitive dissonance, but I mean, hey, they're not gonna put this kind of conference much closer to me than Yellow Springs. Anyway, here I am cruising down some nondescript country road in the pre-dawn gloaming, listening to the sound of a few more gallons burning away forever, when I hit a deer.

It was a glancing blow, and did no damage to the car. The deer may or may not have teleported back to wherever it materialized from, because it was gone as fast as it appeared. But from that point on, soaked in orange juice, I was spooked by four more clusters of deer, a dog, a cat, and a raccoon. What was going on with the animals anyway? Even walking up to Antioch Hall through the suddenly crisp fall air, a squirrel leaped out from behind a tree and I got another surge of adrenalin. Coffee? None for me thanks.

So fresh off this motivating conference, and partially inspired by Larry's presentation, I've decided to start a Peak Oil related blog. (Any peakniks who might be reading are going, "Oh great, not another one.") I will be keeping the focus away from questions like "What is Peak Oil?", "When is the peak?" and "Have we peaked?" and and "What are the Saudi's up to now?" Nor am I going to make dire predictions or meditate on the gloomy prospects and possibilities. I'm done with that. If you want that stuff, it's out there aplenty. I'll just say that I'm fairly convinced we're already at peak, and leave it at that.

What I'm going to focus on instead, is individual actions, low-cost solutions, and low-tech mitigation. Peak oil or no, petroleum is setting new records almost daily, and it's only a matter of time before that $2.75 gas looks like a real bargain. There are a lot of things that we can do to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. As a bonus, the very same things almost always help with that whole climate change thing too.

You'll just have to wait to find out about the other writing project...

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Sunday, March 11, 2007

Chestnuts of (permaculture) wisdom

Growing up in New England, Mark Shepard's influences included his father, who planted a wide variety of fruit trees and berry bushes in the back yard, and "some grouchy old guy" down the road - who turned out to be none other than Scott Nearing (The Good Life).

Now, after a lifetime of studying and growing plants, some permaculture training, authoring a book or two, helping to establish Midwest Permaculture, and living the life he believes in, some fortunate series of events led him to the Ohio Ecological Food and Farm Association conference, which I attended last weekend. [I've written about my thoughts on the conference in general over here.]

Mark has probably told these stories and given these speeches hundreds of times before, but he brings so much energy and humor and brightness to the material that makes it downright infectious. He went through so many ideas that made me say, "wow," that I haven't come close to remembering everything, nor have I had time to look up the things I do remember so I can see how it all works. I hope I'm getting the details right, or at least close.

One of his main themes was what he calls the savanna model. The natural habitat in much of North America was once oak savanna - a mix of grassland and woodland. He said because the savanna takes advantage of three dimensions, vegetation high, low, and everywhere in between, you can get sixty vertical feet of photosynthesis, pull water and nutrients up from much deeper in the soil, and over time, build up some of the richest soil on earth. The savanna model can support more total biomass than almost any other system - seven times more biomass than a cornfield. In addition to large amounts of vegetation, African savannas can support very large fauna, just as the North American savanna used to. He quizzed us on what large animals used to roam these parts, and we all replied "bison." No, he said, bison were merely the medium to small fauna. The large fauna were things like the mastadons and woolly mammoths.

So that was the kind of potential for biomass this part of the country could support, if we adopted the savanna model. How? By using the concept of stacking to grow more plants and animals in less space, even while improving the ecosystem. The savanna model can be immitated in a highly productive way by growing more woody plants and trees that bear useful products, interspersed with grazing animals on pasture or more perennial food crops like asparagus. The beauty of this approach is that it reduces to almost zero the amount of tilling, seed starting, planting, and cultivating. And once established, labor decreases and output increases over time.

He discussed the fact that every civilization that took the majority of its carbohydrates, fats, and calories from annual crops eventually failed. Soil erosion, soil depletion, and energy costs for annual crops do not scale up well. At least not unless you have a cheap, abundant energy source, like fossil fuels, to prop the system up with.

At that point, he asked for a show of hands of how many people were familiar with the concept of Peak Oil. Even among that eco-savvy crowd, only handful out of several hundred raised their hands. He showed a couple graphs that would probably be familiar to anybody who has looked into Peak Oil, but didn't delve into it much further.

Turning back to the topic at hand, he said that the most useful Oak savanna crops fall into the following families:
  • Fagacae: Oaks, chestnuts, beeches
  • Malus: Apples
  • Prunus: Plums, cherries, peaches, apricots, and other stone fruits
  • Corylus: Hazelnuts
  • Vitis: Grapes
  • Rubus: Blackberries & raspberries
  • Ribes: Currants & gooseberries
All grow well together, so they can be planted in various combinations, as needed. For example, imagine a chestnut tree, with a grapevine climbing up it, flanked by an apple tree on one side and a peach tree on the other, with a bramble of blackberries and gooseberries underneath. This could be done on a suburban lot. It could even be surrouunded by daffodils to deter mice from chewing the bark, and to make it look pretty.

Now imagine the same arrangement, expanded into rows running north-south, with animals rotationally grazed on the pasture between the rows. (This kind of arrangement is sometimes called "alley cropping.") Think of the food potential and diversity for just a single acre!

The way he pays for these large plantings of trees is to buy twice or even three times as many trees as he needs at wholesale prices, and then he sells the extras at retail prices, which amounts to free trees for him.

He went into more detail on a couple of trees that caught my attention. The first was the chestnut tree. [Because of chestnut blight, only Chinese chestnuts can be grown in most of the U.S. at this time.] Chestnuts are nutritionally similar to corn, but take no plowing or chemicals or fertilizers or pesticides to produce. The crop almost literally falls from the sky, where it can be easily harvested for human consumption, or fed to livestock. And at the end of the chestnut tree's life, it provides straight-grained, rot-resistant lumber.

The second tree of interest was the hazelnut. Hazelnuts are nutritionally similar to soy, but with three times the oil content. Their hulls burn with the properties of anthricite coal. And every ten years, the trees can be coppiced - cut down to the ground and used for lumber - after which the stump resprouts to grow a whole new tree.

Even the lowly apple tree, he pointed out, could produce 25% more ethanol per acre than a cornfield, without nearly as much processing, or for that matter, farming. Another interesting comment he made was that if you mix hard cider and hazelnut oil, and wait a while, you get biodiesel. No fancy chemistry needed.

One of the core ideas of permaculture is that waste product from one system should ideally become the input of another system. Another key concept is to minimize work by keeping the things that need the most attention closest to the living space. He gave an elaborately detailed example from his morning routine.

He takes his kitchen scraps from the night before out toward his chicken coop. There, the meat scraps are separated from the vegetative material by a fully automated no-maintenance system - a system so advanced, it also deters mice, rats, foxes, coyotes, and racoons. The system consists of the family dogs and cats racing each other to the kitchen scrap pail, with first prize being the meat scraps. While the meat sorting system is functioning, he has time to use the facilities - a composting toilet, of course. Once the animal products have been removed from the kitchen scraps, they get dumped on the downhill slope behind the chicken coop. Off the back of the coop, above ground, is a bat box. The bats help minimize insect problems. Also on the back of the chicken coop, above ground, is a rabbit hutch, with an open mesh floor. The rabbit droppings fall onto the same slope as the table scraps. Rainwater collected from the roof of the coop is used to provide drinking water for both the rabbits and the chickens. After he feeds the chickens and lets them out of the coop, they dig through the table scraps for tasty morsels, and scratch the remaining scraps and the rabbit manure and any bat guano. Downhill from the chicken coop is a compost pit, dug into the ground. Chicken scratching plus gravity helps the scraps and manure gradually move downhill until they end up in the pit. The chickens will literally burrow through the compost looking for worms, while at the same time aerating the pile to keep the composting process moving along. After feeding the chickens and rabbits, and collecting eggs from the coop, he feeds his cattle and hogs, who have access to feed troughs attached to the coop. The animals funnel in from adjacent teardrop-shaped pastures. From there, he picks veggies from the garden, and mushrooms from a nearby shiataake-innoculated log. By the time he steps back in the house, he's fed his dogs, cats, chickens, rabbits, cattle, and hogs, he's harvested the garden, and he's got the makings of a nice breakfast omelette, as he says, "all because I had to poop."

The Circle of Life, it seems, is more of an elaborate, three-dimensional, interwoven tapestry - and a beautiful tapestry at that - even if it does involve a surprising diversity of poop.

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Saturday, January 20, 2007

That's a ton of carbon dioxide

Household energy usagePropaneElectricity
December 2005185 gallons1040 KWH
December 200628 gallons729 KWH
Change:85% reduction30% reduction
CO2 reduction:2011 lbs417 lbs
Approximate C02 cost of corn production & harvest: 440 lbs

If you add the two CO2 reduction numbers together, and subtract what it took to grow and process the corn, our household was responsible for putting 1,988 fewer pounds of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere for December 2006 compared to the same month last year.

That's 66 lbs per day, or about the weight of my two 3 1/2-year-old kids combined.

(I'm assuming the CO2 emitted by burning the corn is equivalent to the CO2 absorbed by the corn plants when they were grown. It's actually probably a net gain, since we're only using a fraction of the corn plant's biomass.)

What did we do to achieve these dramatic results? Honestly, not that much. We replaced light bulbs with compact fluorescents, I put some power strips on the computers and TV equipment to eliminate "phantom loads" when not in use, and we switched our home heating from a propane furnace to a corn/pellet stove. As an added bonus, these changes should pay for themselves in just a few years.

As regular readers may realize, I worry more about peak oil than global warming, probably because my brain can only process one potential global crisis at a time. I'm well aware of climate change concerns, which is why I decided to calculate these numbers. I have to admit though, that I have not read extensively on climate change, because, for the most part, the solutions for both of these problems amount to the same thing: Stop making every aspect of our existence dependent on fossil fuels. As an added bonus, these changes should reduce our need to send lots of money to unstable countries who generally seem to hate us and want us all to die.

But it's pretty near impossible to go cold turkey on fossil fuels. There's a reason we use them for everything. They're abundant, cheap, and packed with energy. At least on the surface. The best we can do to get away from them is just keep trying to conserve, learn, adapt, and change.

The right answers are sometimes hard to find. As I mentioned, since last year, we've switched from burning propane for heat to burning corn. We've recently switched from corn to wood pellets, at least temporarily. There were two reasons for this: 1) Rodents. Until we make some better arrangements, the corn is too much of a rodent magnet. We're working on that... and 2) The cost difference evaporated. Corn has more than doubled in price due to a poor harvest nationally, and corn-to-ethanol plants popping up like weeds throughout the midwest. What we bought for $2.12 a bushel in September now sells for $5.32 a bushel. (Corn-to-ethanol is kind of a silly thing to do, in my opinion, but that's a topic for another day.)

It's hard to figure whether corn or pellets make more sense. The corn is locally produced and harvested, but that generally means lots of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides, etc. I don't know where the pellets are shipped in from, but I'm sure it's not local (though it is in the US). They are made from a waste product (hardwood sawdust), but I can't really find any information on the energy required to produce them. And bagged 40 lbs. at a time, the packaging definitely adds up. As I understand it, corn burns a little cleaner, a little hotter, and a little more efficiently than pellets, but produces more ash. Corn can be renewed in a growing season, where a woodlot can require decades to establish. Both corn and pellets require more processing than burning whole firewood, but they both burn more efficiently, and something like 85% cleaner in terms of particulate emissions. They also require more technology and moving parts for burning. I don't know if any of these three options could scale up to heat everybody's homes. In our case, we could theoretically grow enough corn to provide all the heat we need, but we're not in a position to do that at this point. And to top it all off, there's some concern about using a food product as fuel.

What's best? You tell me, because I can't figure it out. All I know is that compared to last year, we've come out ahead in several different ways.

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Tuesday, November 28, 2006

My Crazy Scheme, Part 1: Big Hairy Deal

Ok, so as the TV blares on about spiffy HDTV sets, and sparkling jewelry, and stylish cars as the perfect Christmas gifts, and everything seems to be structured around buy more, sell more, everybody wins, ain't it cool economic growth, I see some major issues lurking in the misty background.

[Here's where you stick your fingers in your ears and say, "La-La-La! I'm not listening!"]

Now I'm not claiming I'm squeaky clean, nor better than anybody else on this front. But I'm becoming more aware that it's physically impossible for this to go on indefinitely. Which generation foots the bill for this party?

So, after thinking and reading a lot, I have come up with a Crazy Scheme to Save the World.

Or, at least, a Crazy Scheme. But first, I want to outline the problems I wish to solve.

Patience. All will be revealed.

Meanwhile, pardon me whilst I wax philosophic, in Part One of my four(?/!) part tome.

Problem #1: We All Need to Eat.

I'm stating the obvious here. Food is a requirement of life. Food used to mean pick an apple from a tree, or pull a carrot from the soil, and eat it. Now food means grow a kabillion tons of corn and soy, feed it to machines, turn it into a hundred different substances, combine them in various ways for lifelike texture, add in a dozen other components from hither and yon to make it taste just like homemade, or better, add in a little more chemistry to make it last a long time, wrap it, pack it, and ship it worldwide so it's on every grocery store shelf in every city. Then buy it and eat it.

But I feel that there are a myriad of ethical problems around most of our food supply. From unconscionable treatment of animals (and humans for that matter), to overuse of antibiotics, pesticides, and herbicides, growing health problems, soil depletion, groundwater depletion, chemical exposure to workers, a subsidy system that is a mess, huge dependence on fossil fuels (and thus huge dependence on numerous political quagmires, not to mention pollution and climate change)... Shall I go on?

I don't think we can (or should attempt to) continue down this path forever.

Problem #2: No Man is an Island.

Most of us tend to be lacking in community. We give a friendly wave to the neighbor in the driveway. Maybe we exchange Christmas cards with one or two people on the block. But as a culture, we've become adept at creating cocoons around ourselves. We each have our own personal home theater systems in our family rooms, our own play structures in our back yards, our own sets of tools and books, our own traditions, even individual bedrooms and bathrooms in many cases. As Mia described so well a while back, it's often very hard to connect with the people who are geographically closest to you.

We drive in our glass bubbles of anonymity, raging against some other anonymous @&#%! driver who made us hit the brake pedal, and encountering thousands of others every day with whom we share not even the slightest hint of connection or recognition.

[A quick aside... I want to have a button on my steering wheel that is the opposite of the horn. When I push the button, I want blue lights to turn on - a highway equivalent of saying, "Oops! Sorry!" But back to the universal anonymity problem...]

We don't care about people we don't know, and we don't know anybody. There's no accountability.

Once upon a time it might have been, "Hey Jimmy! Nice catch last weekend. Your mom over her cold yet?" But now it's, "Hey kid, get outta my yard!" or "No, you can't walk to the Kwik-E-Mart. I'll drive you."

We need other people... Even people we don't like or agree with. It takes a village and all that. Especially if there's a crisis. 9/11. Katrina. Sometimes people pull together. Sometimes they don't. Who knows why. But the odds of pulling together seem higher if we can call each other by name.

Problem #3: Money sucks

There are a lucky few who don't have a mortgage, or who don't have bills to worry about. I haven't run across very many. Everybody loves money. Everybody hates money.

We perform services or we produce goods, and we get money. We use that money to buy the necessitites of life. (And then some.) We take somebody else's goods or services in exchange for that money, to buy what we need (and want). Money is a useful mechanism, but sometimes it's inefficient. Sometimes too much is lost in that exchange rate from my labor to money and then from money to your labor. Money isn't fair or equitable, and it doesn't have morals. Money doesn't care whether you make your mortgage or not. But it sure can cause stress and grief and headaches.

Problem #4: Limitations

Are we reaching the limit on how much cheap petroleum we can pump? Have we maxed out industrial grain production? Are we depleting aquifers? Or topsoil? Are the oceans being overfished? Have we put too much carbon into the atmosphere?

Has the world's population gotten big enough, or efficient enough at using things up, that we're actually going to start running out of certain resources? It's hard to know what to beleive. We've never used up anything before, except maybe dodo's. We're in uncharted waters.

Ok, enough problems. On to some actions...

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Saturday, October 28, 2006

Indoctrination

If you want to join The Cult of Peak Oil (which I can't imagine why you would), watch this 52 minute video. Normally the makers of this video charge 20 bucks for it, but they've posted it free online for a limited time.


Now, back to your regularly scheduled programming...

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