Monday, January 07, 2008

Predictions

Everybody's hauling out their 2008 predictions right now. Most of them are a bit, um, bleak. Most of them are also a tad vague.

I thought I'd inject a tiny bit of fun by making some relatively specific predictions. Let's check back in a year so we can all have a good laugh at my expense (I hope).

Off we go then...

- The US average for a gallon of gasoline will top $3.50 at some point - OR - there will be spot shortages somewhere in the US.

- The Dow Jones Industriral Average will drop below 11,000

- Michael Bloomberg will enter the presidential race as an independent, and he will make a better showing that Ross Perot.

- The US banking industry will consolidate further, with at least one mega-merger (e.g. Chase + Citi)

- Credit card defaults will experience a double-digit increase

- Gardening (the edible kind, not the aesthetic kind) will continue it's huge resurgence

- "Peak Oil" will become a household word. Er, phrase

- Peak oil will become politicized almost immediately thereafter, a la global warming. Daniel Yergin may even get a government appointment out of it, depending on who's elected.

- Instant gratification special: Ohio State will be LSU by more than a touchdown in the BCS Championship game tonight.

- Vague prediction special: Some huge event will happen sometime this year that will keep us glued to our news sources for days


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5 Comments:

At 1/07/2008 10:13 PM, OpenID onestraw said...

We'll see, but I think Ohio's going down!

Oh, and I think gas will hit $4 by July 8th as a birthday present for me and my Insight.

 
At 1/07/2008 11:51 PM, Blogger e4 said...

And now we've established that I have no qualifications and no business making such predictions.

I think gas will hit $4 also, but I thought that it would in '07 too. In fact, I don't really understand at this point why gas isn't higher. I read that at $100 a barrel, gas comes to $2.40 a gallon, and that's before refining, taxes, etc. We've had a much bigger run-up in oil prices than we have at the pump. Who's letting their profits go?

Anyway, 0 for 1. I won't mind if I'm wrong on some of these others too.

 
At 1/08/2008 9:05 AM, Blogger Matt said...

The refiners are letting their profits drop. When gas spiked to $3 a gallon for Katrina refiner profits were around 50 cents a gallon. Now they are around 2-3 cents a gallon.

Yea for LSU!

 
At 1/08/2008 10:30 AM, Blogger e4 said...

Interesting. So any word on what their motivation is? Political? Economic?

 
At 1/14/2008 10:57 PM, Blogger Suzer said...

I agree that gas will go much higher. It hit $3.20 here last week and I'm sure it's not going to stop. I may have to cave and buy a Vespa, but only if I can get one in sea foam green :)

 

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